Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 3.085777 3.608857 4.188299 4.877039 5.672650 6.562124 7.631237
2025-11-16 2.248262 2.943691 3.798392 4.922686 6.359083 8.128936 10.471095
2025-11-23 1.716797 2.470736 3.481024 4.925907 6.930234 9.602029 13.421704
2025-11-30 1.434874 2.236950 3.392843 5.165606 7.798322 11.542300 17.243388
2025-12-07 1.180851 1.976522 3.199377 5.193634 8.336945 13.064957 20.667069
2025-12-14 0.982499 1.753913 3.010346 5.175468 8.774186 14.463263 24.060656
2025-12-21 0.834801 1.580971 2.862508 5.184411 9.233577 15.927755 27.717242
2025-12-28 0.779601 1.555785 2.952780 5.597860 10.408442 18.677348 33.793797
2026-01-04 0.691985 1.453077 2.886520 5.718519 11.081165 20.649165 38.774158
2026-01-11 0.622172 1.370761 2.842123 5.867139 11.814959 22.800926 44.309103
2026-01-18 0.550174 1.270050 2.744680 5.895202 12.317951 24.581076 49.356792
2026-01-25 0.474663 1.147416 2.582738 5.767077 12.492258 25.754022 53.377896
2026-02-01 0.396811 1.006730 2.364531 5.497512 12.361317 26.355661 56.437336
2026-02-08 0.344163 0.914545 2.236953 5.404410 12.589077 27.706470 61.179420
2026-02-15 0.302376 0.840336 2.137410 5.357795 12.909699 29.284946 66.580314
2026-02-22 0.283362 0.820112 2.160856 5.599000 13.905774 32.408626 75.622992
2026-03-01 0.254600 0.768149 2.098120 5.622734 14.400258 34.490779 82.619685
2026-03-08 0.227289 0.714509 2.021999 5.600847 14.781594 36.360328 89.348109
2026-03-15 0.204773 0.669886 1.961741 5.609676 15.238020 38.451739 96.817187
2026-03-22 0.202046 0.683739 2.061256 6.054945 16.852152 43.446907 111.652736
2026-03-29 0.187316 0.657571 2.045414 6.184839 17.668513 46.609857 122.424741
2026-04-05 0.174972 0.636474 2.040625 6.344917 18.586015 50.122238 134.429814
2026-04-12 0.159777 0.602735 1.993013 6.375134 19.155357 52.821619 144.689304